THE “CONVENTIONAL WISDOM” - - -

IMPERVIOUS TO THE FACTS AS ALWAYS

An article by the Gallup Organization about its recent Poll of Republicans, conducted 25-28 January 2007, asserts/concedes that “Rudy Giuliani and John McCain [are] the clear frontrunners among the Republican Party’s 2008 presidential hopefuls.” In this poll, 31% said they would support Giuliani and 27% said McCain. When asked to choose between the two, however, Republicans show a “slight” [sic] preference for Giuliani over McCain at 50% to 42%, respectively. The complete article, the hard numbers, and all the cross-tabs are here:

http://www.galluppoll.com/content/default.aspx?ci=26341&pg=1

The substance of this new poll and article from the Gallup Organization is certainly good news for Rudy, though hardly surprising. I must say, however, that the "Conventional Wisdom" is still very much at work in the article describing the Poll.

The article’s author has done what can only be described as a disingenuous job of building up the McCain side of the poll's numbers and categories at Rudy's expense, to wit:

Rudy leads McCain by 4% in the overall horse race. He leads McCain by 8% in the head-to-head match-up, and in the cross-tabs, Rudy leads in 10 of 15 categories, including what can only be described as devastating leads with respect to crime (78%-17%), the economy (52%-38%), and terrorism (53%-41%). In the remaining five categories, Rudy is tied in two, while McCain leads in three. To express that in terms of a sports team’s record, Rudy's record against McCain would be 10-3-2.

Down in the "teeth" of the article, the Gallup Organization "concedes" that "Giuliani's perceived strengths are many, and the distance between Giuliani and McCain on some of these dimensions is very large" and "Overall, Giuliani appears to be very well positioned against McCain on many relevant and important dimensions".

Yet, the author goes out of his way to build up those relatively few areas in which McCain leads Rudy, so as, apparently, to enable him to make the overall assessment that the two candidates should essentially be considered together as "clear frontrunners". Well, if all one had to judge by were the facts presented in this article and poll, the only way in which the two should be considered together as "clear frontrunners" is that Rudy is clearly in first place, McCain is clearly in second place, and everyone else is clearly in no better than third place.

Moreover, the editors give the piece the headline "Giuliani, McCain Have Competing Strengths in Republicans' Eyes", obviously trying to fix the mindset of the reader, at the outset of the article, that neither man is leading the other, as well as to deflect attention-at-a-glance away from the hard numbers. Perhaps the most obvious "howler", however, is where the author terms Rudy's 8-point (50%-42%) in the head-to-head match-up as "slight".

I come back yet again to Deroy Murdock's observation: "The oddest thing about the conventional wisdom may be its almost bulletproof imperviousness to the facts." Indeed, here we have a purveyor of the "Conventional Wisdom" who appears to be impervious even to the facts that he himself is presenting. I would say that actually goes beyond being impervious to facts. It is downright dishonest.

Finally, as a friend of mine, who is close to Rudy personally, puts it: “I agree with you 100%. They can't come to grips with Rudy's strength in the Country and the Party”.

My ultimate conclusion: Run Rudy Run!