RUDY HAS STAR POWER IN IOWA!

The "Krusty Konservative", a blog concentrating on Iowa, has commented on the 2008 Iowa caucuses.

(http://krustykonservative.blogspot.com/2007/01/iowas-political-landscape.html)

The money quote is this, and if you are a regular reader of this blog, said quote more-or-less speaks for itself, needing no further embellishment from me:

"So while McCain starts to attack Romney, and Romney will likely fire back, a huge opportunity will be created in Iowa for an alternative kandidate to emerge. We have discussed in depth that there is a huge void that exists in Iowa for a kredible konservative kandidate, but I also think it might now be an opportune time for Rudy Giuliani to make a foray into Iowa.

"Giuliani will face many of the same obstacles that McCain faces, but what makes Rudy different than McCain is he does have a silver bullet, star power. Giuliani is a celebrity, and if uses that advantage he could really make some noise in Iowa. Now, I'm not a fan of Rudy's positions on the social issues, but when it comes to leadership and toughness he is off the charts. I also think that Giuliani might be the only Republican kandidate who can recapture the national security issues that has delivered victories for Bush and Republicans in 2002 and 2004. I'm still not konvinced that Rudy will play in Iowa, but if he does it will be extremely interesting to watch."

The full posting is this:

Thursday, January 11, 2007

Iowa's Political Landscape

While the main street media, DC politicos, and bloggers outside of Iowa see John McCain as the clear frontrunner in the race for the Republican nomination, the political landscape in Iowa is much different. Yesterday's Roll Call article helped shed some light on what is going on in Iowa.

Roll Call interviewed 63 county chairs and 42 of those said that likely caucus-goers in their area are not inclined to support McCain, 15 said opinions on the Senator are mixed, and 6 said there was enthusiasm for McCain. While the news wasn't good for McCain, Romney faired much better with Iowa's Republican County Chairs, a majority of them said he is exciting the base.

I'm sure that people outside of Iowa are wondering if the opinion of Iowa's Republican county chairs is any accurate indicator of grassroots support for the various 2008 presidential candidates. The reason why this is an accurate representation is because the majority of county chairs are simply activist, they are the everyday Iowans who will actually go to their caucus. It's also important to note that only 100,000 people will probably attend the Iowa Republican caucuses. It takes a pretty motivated person to spend an evening at their local caucus.

It is obvious that McCain has some big hurdles to overcome in Iowa if he is going to be successful in the Straw Poll and Iowa Caucus. He can overcome them, but it is going to take a lot of hard work, and a campaign team with a golden touch with Iowa activist. For McCain there isn't a silver bullet issues that propel him to victory in Iowa. Instead, McCain is going to need to visit every nook and cranny of Iowa and get to know Iowans in hopes that they get to know, and end up liking him.

I'm pretty sure that the Romney folks were thrilled to see the Roll Call article. However, it also creates a problem for them. Romney is now konsidered the frontrunner in Iowa, which is a position that will bring additional challenges to the Romney kampaign.

One of the problems is expectations. Romney is now expected to do very well in Iowa. I really don't think the Romney campaign is going to worry much about this, they need to win Iowa, and they know it. But while their expectations when up with the latest news, McCain's have now lowered in Iowa, which they needed to do.

The other problem for Romney is the target is now on his back. As the frontrunner in Iowa, Romney is going to be attached from all sides, and especially from John McCain. Yesterday we saw the sudden appearance of a YouTube video that shows Romney answering questions about gay rights and abortion. I find the timing of these things to be very interesting. I don't think it's a koincidence that the same day John McCain gets some bad news, an anti-Romney clip surfaces.

So while McCain starts to attack Romney, and Romney will likely fire back, a huge opportunity will be created in Iowa for an alternative kandidate to emerge. We have discussed in depth that there is a huge void that exists in Iowa for a kredible konservative kandidate, but I also think it might now be an opportune time for Rudy Giuliani to make a foray into Iowa.

Giuliani will face many of the same obstacles that McCain faces, but what makes Rudy different than McCain is he does have a silver bullet, star power. Giuliani is a celebrity, and if uses that advantage he could really make some noise in Iowa. Now, I'm not a fan of Rudy's positions on the social issues, but when it comes to leadership and toughness he is off the charts. I also think that Giuliani might be the only Republican kandidate who can recapture the national security issues that has delivered victories for Bush and Republicans in 2002 and 2004. I'm still not konvinced that Rudy will play in Iowa, but if he does it will be extremely interesting to watch.

The majority of traditional caucus goers are social konservatives, and that block of voters kurrently lacks an active kredible konservative kandidate. It seems like there is an early move towards Romney, but as McCain and other candidates will do all they can to educate them Romney's past statements that could change. However it doesn't guarantee that they then flock to McCain, they might go with a Huckabee or Brownback instead.

Success for McCain and Giuliani in the Iowa Caucus will depend on their ability to motivate people who don't normally attend a caucus to go out and support them. It's my opinion that Giuliani would be more successful at that than McCain will.

My ultimate conclusion: Run Rudy Run!