NEW ZOGBY NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL!

The Zogby Organization has released a new New Hanpshire poll. The Democratic and Republican live operator telephone surveys were conducted Jan. 15-17, 2007. The Democratic poll included 502 respondents and carries a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points. The Republican survey included 503 respondents and carries a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points. The numbers:

Republicans:

John McCain 26%

Rudy Giuliani 20%

Mitt Romney 13%

Condi Rice 7%

Newt Gingrich 6%

Chuck Hagel 3%

Tom Tancredo 2%

Duncan Hunter 1%

George Pataki 1%

Ron Paul 1%

Unsure 15%

Democrats:

Barack Obama 23%

Hillary Clinton 19%

John Edwards 19%

John Kerry 5%

Wes Clark 3%

Joe Biden 3%

Dennis Kucinich 1%

Bill Richardson 1%

Tom Vilsack 1%

Unsure 22%

Here, I will say the same thing about Zogby/New Hampshire that I did about Zogby/Iowa:

“The Zogby organization is downright notorious for polling to the "Left", both among Republicans and among Democrats. In my almost 40 years of studying political polls, I have noticed that the Zogby poll, for however long its been around -- I don't remember exactly -- has consistently been an outlier to the left. Hence, Rudy is down from the 30%-18% lead he enjoyed over McCain among Iowa Caucus Workers in August, and Hillary is tied for third place, some 11 points behind Class Warrior Edwards.”

Further to this point: I would remind everyone that a Fox News poll, released on 07 January 2007, had Rudy leading McCain in New Hampshire Poll by 29% to 24%.

Further still to this point, because I think it quite significant, I would offer yet again the following two observations, one each about Iowa and New Hampshire, which I have recently posted in this space:

Posted: 15 January 2007:

RUDY HAS STAR POWER IN IOWA!

The "Krusty Konservative", a blog concentrating on Iowa, has commented recently on the 2008 Iowa caucuses. The money quote is this, and if you are a regular reader of this blog, said quote more-or-less speaks for itself, needing no further embellishment from me:

"So while McCain starts to attack Romney, and Romney will likely fire back, a huge opportunity will be created in Iowa for an alternative kandidate to emerge. We have discussed in depth that there is a huge void that exists in Iowa for a kredible konservative kandidate, but I also think it might now be an opportune time for Rudy Giuliani to make a foray into Iowa.

"Giuliani will face many of the same obstacles that McCain faces, but what makes Rudy different than McCain is he does have a silver bullet, star power. Giuliani is a celebrity, and if uses that advantage he could really make some noise in Iowa. Now, I'm not a fan of Rudy's positions on the social issues, but when it comes to leadership and toughness he is off the charts. I also think that Giuliani might be the only Republican kandidate who can recapture the national security issues that has delivered victories for Bush and Republicans in 2002 and 2004. I'm still not konvinced that Rudy will play in Iowa, but if he does it will be extremely interesting to watch."

Posted: 11 January 2007:

MORE ON NEW HAMPSHIRE

I heard an interesting tidbit last night in Fox News' Chief Political Correspondent Carl Cameron's report on the "state of things" in New Hampshire, which I think bears on my comments yesterday about the recent poll showing Rudy leading McCain by 29% to 24% in the Granite State, as well as on the New Hampshire Primary in general.

This tidbit is set in the context of John McCain's 2000 Republican Primary trouncing of George Bush by 49% to 32%. Mr. Cameron talked to a New Hampshire Democrat "political insider" who gave the following analysis: McCain's margin of victory in 2000 was the result largely of registered independent voters who "broke" hugely for the Arizona Senator -- "Straight Talk Express", and all that. The 2006 elections, however, "changed all that". This past November, owing to the war in Iraq and all the other things we all know about, those same independent voters voted overwhelmingly for Democrats, giving the New Hampshire polity a political "cast" at all levels that is hugely Democrat, in fact more so than at any previous time in the State's history. That's more-or-less "fact". The "analysis" is that those voters have cast their lot with the Democrat Party, at least for the foreseeable future, and will not therefore be voting in the Republican Primary in 2008.

I do not necessarily "endorse" this analysis, but at the same time, I have no reason to doubt it. In fact, it does sound rather intuitive, and it is certainly in consonance with all the ad nauseam Media blather we heard in the wake of the 2006 elections, about how the GOP "lost" the Northeastern Republicans -- the old "Rockefeller Republicans" -- perhaps for good. The "poster boy" example, of course, was Lincoln Chafee, who lost his and his family's long-held Senate seat in Rhode Island, apparently for no other reason than that he had an "R" after his name on the ballot. Moreover, the actual results in New Hampshire in 2006, do seem to support the analysis of Mr. Cameron's interlocutor.

If the "analysis", actually an educated prediction about voting patterns in the 2008 New Hampshire primaries, proves to be accurate, then, in the current through-the-looking-glass world in which we find ourselves, this can be only good news for Rudy. I put it that way because, in the normal year, independent New Hampshire voters, who customarily vote Republican in the primary, would be exactly the kind of voter one would expect to respond very well to Rudy. Thus, their loss to the Democrat Party should hurt Rudy’s primary electoral fortunes. This time round, however, the defection of those voters to the Democrats will mean principally that the support of Rudy's primary rival has been gutted! Couple that with the recent Fox News poll and the enormous and enthusiastic turn-out for Rudy's appearances in New Hampshire last fall, and it all adds up to a very good "alignment of the planets" for America's Mayor in the Granite State!

My ultimate conclusion: Run Rudy Run!