IN DEFENSE OF DISCUSSION!

As most of you know, I visit frequently a web-site called “Race 4 2008” (http://race42008.com/). Sometimes, I post a comment. When I do, this comment usually leads to a similar posting here, almost always after I have revised it. “Race 4 2008” provides a forum for discussion centered around the race for the GOP’s Presidential nomination in 2008. In addition, the sponsors of that site rate the current and potential Republican candidates in what they call “Power Rankings” Since 29 November 2006, these Power Rankings have had Rudy and McCain in a tie for first place with Romney in third and Newt in fourth, and all the others lined up thereafter, more or less as one might expect. Recently, some supporters of Romney, and indeed, even some supporters of Mike Huchabee, accused the organizers of the site of being “biased” in favour of Rudy in the Power Rankings. This led to a spirited debate! I thought that readers of this site might be interested to see what I had to say. Here it is:

I must come to the defense of this site. I have been a regular visitor, and sometime commentator, since last June/July. As I have groked the purpose of this site, it is intended to present a forum for open political discussion – centered around the contest for the GOP’s Presidential nomination in 2008 -- not to strive for metaphysical clarity or rectitude. In my judgment, the site succeeds admirably in its purpose. I have seen some of the most absolutely inane and puerile opinions expressed here, opinions that strain my own commitment to civil discourse to the breaking point. I have also seen opinions evidencing great sagacity, maturity, and insight -- verging on real profundity. I have seen everything in between. My overall seat-of-the-pants assessment of the site’s content would weigh distinctly toward the latter, rather than the former. Moreover, these disparate opinions are expressed by a huge number of contributors, apparently from all across the country. For a discussion forum, gentlemen, that is real success!

Before I turn to the issue of the “Power Rankings”, a bit of disclosure is in order. There is no question that I support Rudy Giuliani for the Presidency in 2008! See: “Run Rudy Run”. During Rudy’s tenure as U.S. Attorney in New York in the 1980’s, I was a practicing attorney and negotiated with his office on more than a few occasions. I supported Ron Lauder against Rudy in the 1989 Mayoral Primary. Subsequently, I saw the error of my ways and supported Rudy in all his three runs for Gracie Mansion. All that said, I have been involved in Republican politics since 1960, when I handed out leaflets on the street corner for Richard Nixon. I covered the 1968 Democrat convention in Chicago as a reporter for my college newspaper. My first foray into politics as other than a volunteer or journalist was in the short-lived 1982 Senate campaign of Republican Mike Seymour in New York. I have truly “seen it all”.

As for the “Power Rankings”: Ranking Rudy and McCain as “tied” for the status of “frontrunner” seems to me a very thoughtful and creative way to address a somewhat ambiguous and confusing, if not unique, situation. At this point in time, every single hard fact-on-the-ground places Rudy as the clear frontrunner, with McCain a distinct second, albeit not terribly far back. No one else is even close. At the same time, the “Conventional Wisdom”, the MSM, the Beltway Punditocracy, and the “Wise Men” of Washington, all virtually unanimously rate McCain as the frontrunner, even to the point of disdaining or ignoring Rudy. Then there is the nagging suspicion, even among some of his supporters -- though not I -- that Rudy will ultimately eschew actually running. Finally, there is the inescapable fact that not a single meaningful vote has yet been cast. Without trying here to assess the underlying reasons for this situation -- as National Review’s Deroy Murdock puts it: "[t]he oddest thing about the conventional wisdom may be its almost bulletproof imperviousness to the facts” -- the question nevertheless presents itself: What’s an honest power ranker to do? As I say, the “tie” seems to me a thoughtful and creative answer.

As for the rest of the rankings: Romney (3^rd) and Newt (4^th) were, when these rankings were last updated, and still are, the only other potential candidates who had/have shown any objective sign of breaking away from the rest of the pack, though neither has shown any objective sign of actually challenging Rudy or McCain. As I have shown in other postings on this site, Newt has of late -- though he still insists he has not made the decision to run and will not run unless the top-tier candidates falter -- significantly out-performed Romney, who has actually formed an Exploratory Committee. At same time, there are those on this site and elsewhere who firmly insist that Romney is “the 3^rd of the Big 3”, or that he will leap into the lead when his poll numbers rise and Rudy’s decline, or some such thing, all with absolutely no objective evidence to support their wishful thinking. Ho-hum; whatever! In my view, these two, Newt and Romney, should be viewed at this point in time as the only “other” potential candidates who have even a glimmer of hope of competing seriously for the nomination, and that’s just where the Power Rankings have them: in 3^rd and 4^th place, the specific order is irrelevant.

Below that, there’s no one yet that I am willing to take the time even to consider. By that, I do not mean to denigrate any of them. Some of them are very fine men and government officials. I actually like Mike Huckabee, and I have known Jim Gilmore for almost 50 years. [Note: Jim is not currently in the Power Rankings because (I assume), when they were last up-dated, he had not yet formed his Exploratory Committee.] That said, for a mature, indeed sentient, human being to opine seriously that “Huckabee will come through” or “I prefer Tom Tancredo over Duncan Hunter, or vice versa”, or “Jim Gilmore is the only true conservative in the race”, or “Condi Rice will ultimately be drafted by the American People”, is, in my judgment at this time, nothing more than mental masturbation.

My ultimate conclusion: Run Rudy Run!